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American brewers who use coolships for spontaneous fermentation have reported that the success rate for spontaneously fermented beer is around 90-80%. Brewers will often dump undrinkable beers from individual barrels or even beers from barrels that don't meet the expectations of the brewers <ref name="howat_comeandbrewit" />.

===Microbial Succession During Fermentation===

The second stage of spontaneous fermentation is dominated by ''Saccharomyces'' species (predominantly ''S. cerevisiae'', ''S. bayanus'', and ''S. pastorianus'', the latter often being present towards the end of this phase). ''Hanseniaspora uvarum'' has also been reported in some but not all lambic fermentations playing a major role in starting the second stage of spontaneous fermentation, which is characterized by ethanol production. Most of the attenuation is accomplished during this stage with the depletion of monosaccharides, disaccharides, and trisaccharides consumed in that order (glucose/fructose is consumed first by the ''S. cerevisiae'', and then maltose/maltotriose are gradually depleted until they are gone by the end of the second stage). Ethanol, methyl-1-butanol, and succinic acid are the main compounds produced during this stage for wort that has been pre-acidified. This stage lasts approximately 3-4 months. One study also found populations of ''Kazachsania'' yeast species and ''Cellulosimicrobium'' yeast species early on in the second stage <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />. In addition to the bulk of the overall ethanol production, this phase also sees the production of higher alcohols and the synthesis of esters, especially isoamyl acetate, as well as glycerol, caprylic acid, and capric acid <ref name="Van Oevelen et al., 1977" /><ref name="Roos_2018" />. It has been reported by some brewers that this stage might begin as early as 3-14 days and corresponds with a drop in pH below that of regular beer, indicating that the first stage for some spontaneous fermentations might be shorter and faster than reported in the other literature <ref>[http://www.spontanmanc.co.uk/?p=66 Zach Taylor of Chorlton Brewing Co. "The Lab Work Begins". Spontanmanc blog. 08/01/2018. Retrieved 08/29/2018.]</ref>. MTF members (both homebrewers and professionals) have observed yeast fermentation activity typically at 3-7 days <ref>[https://www.facebook.com/events/666424196868756/ Various MTF members. Milk the Funk - Collaboration Brew #3: Spontaneous. 05/01/2017. Retrieved 08/29/2018.]</ref><ref>[https://www.facebook.com/groups/MilkTheFunk/permalink/1571139996247542/?comment_id=1571597289535146 Raf Soef, James Howat, Levi Funk. Milk The Funk Facebook thread on how long it takes for yeast to start fermenting in a spontaneous fermentation. 2017.]</ref>. However, these reports are anecdotal based on visual fermentation and microbe analysis was not done in many cases. De Roos et al. (2018) reported that for wort that is pre-acidified to a pH of 4.5, and after an initial drop in pH to 3.8 by enterobacterial and acetic acid bacteria, the pH rose to 4.0 during the secondary fermentation phase, indicating that the yeast consumed some of the organic acids that were produced during the initial enterobacteria phase <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />.

The ''[[Saccharomyces]]'' dominated stage of fermentation is followed by prolonged and gradual acid and flavor development accompanied by the final points of attenuation, which lasts anywhere from 2 to 10 months <ref name="Roos_2018" />. In some descriptions this is split into an "acidification phase" which is dominated by lactic acid bacteria (LAB), primarily ''[[Pediococcus]]'' and sometimes ''[[Lactobacillus]]'', and a "maturation phase" driven by ''[[Brettanomyces]]'' <ref name="Van Oevelen et al., 1977" />. Other sources describe these as one extended maturation phase with acidification from ''Pediococcus'' and ''Brettanomyces'' growth occurring simultaneously <ref name="Spitaels et al., 2015" /><ref name="Bokulic et al., 2012" /><ref name="Spitaels et al., 2014" />. When the wort is pre-acidified, the acidification and maturation phases overlap <ref name="Roos_2018" />. Other yeasts such as ''Candida'', ''Cryptococcus'', and ''Torulopsis'' species have also been isolated from mature lambic, although their impact other than possibly being involved in the formation of a pellicle is unknown <ref>[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.2050-0416.1977.tb03825.x MICROBIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF SPONTANEOUS WORT FERMENTATION IN THE PRODUCTION OF LAMBIC AND GUEUZE. D. Van Oevelen M. Spaepen P. Timmermans H. Verachtert. 1977. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.2050-0416.1977.tb03825.x.]</ref>. As many of the flavor and aroma characteristics that we associate with spontaneously fermented beer are produced during this slow maturation/acidification phase, allowing sufficient aging time is important when producing spontaneously fermented beers <ref name="Van Oevelen et al., 1976" /><ref name="Spaepen et al., 1978" />. Homebrewer Caleb Buck reported data on several batches of homebrewed spontaneously fermented beer and observed a slower drop in gravity for some batches than others over about a 7 month period (see [http://www.archaicpursuit.com/2018/08/2017-coolship-experiment-hopping-rate.html?m=1 this graph for details]). De Roos et al. (2018) reported a gradual increase in glucose, maltose, and maltotriose from week 7 to month 6 due to the degradation of maltooligosaccharides (higher chain sugars) <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />.

The acidification phase is also accompanied by the growth of acetic acid bacteria (AAB), which can be undesirable if this growth is excessive since it leads to greater [[Acetic Acid|acetic acid]] production (in high quantities, acetic acid smells and tastes like vinegar and is very harsh on the palate and throat) as well as acetoin. These microbes include species from the genera of ''Acetobacter'' and ''Gluconobacter''. These microbes are dependent on oxygen in order to metabolize ethanol into acetic acid (with acetaldehyde produced as an intermediary step) and acetoin from lactic acid and are found on the surface of the wort where oxygen is available. The beer/air interface (or surface of the beer that interfaces with the air above it) is also where higher concentrations of acetic acid and acetoin are found due to the AAB being present there rather than deeper within the beer (this is similar to [[Flanders Red Ale]]). It has been shown that the species of AAB found in lambic and American spontaneous ales have adapted to high concentrations of ethanol and acetic acid <ref name="Roos_2018" />. With the flavor threshold of acetic acid in beer being 90 ppm <ref>[https://www.aroxa.com/beer/beer-flavour-standard/acetic-acid Aroxa website. "Acetic Acid". Retrieved 11/19/2018.]</ref>, and the levels of acetic acid in Belgian gueuze/lambic being reported in the range of 727-2240 ppm, acetic acid levels in this range is an important flavor compound in spontaneously fermented beers <ref>[http://beachwoodbbq.com/pdf/BBAIBLTBLENDERY.pdf Ryan Fields. "Brewing Beer in America Inspired By the Belgian Lambic Tradition". 2018.]</ref><ref name="Spitaels et al., 2015" />. De Roos et al. (2018) reported high numbers of ''Acetobacter pasteurianus'' from month 3 to month 6, with it disappearing around month 9-13 as ''Pediococcus damnosus'' took its place. They also reported finding significant levels of ''Acetobacter orientalis'' during week 2 and 3 of lambic that was pre-acidified <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />. Curtin et al. (2018) showed that acetic acid bacteria came and went at various random points within a 0-4.5 month period of fermentation <ref name="curtain_asbc_2018" />(~26 minutes in).

The fourth and last phase of spontaneous fermentation, also known as the extended maturation phase, is dominated by ''[[Brettanomyces]]'' yeast, which is a genus of yeasts that are highly tolerant of low pH, high alcohol, and can survive in low-nutrient conditions, as well as lactic acid bacteria from the genera ''[[Pediococcus]]'' and to a lesser extent ''[[Lactobacillus]]'' and ''Pichia'' yeast species. This phase generally begins somewhere around month four to eight, with these microbes completely dominating at around 9-13 months <ref name="Roos_2018_2" /><ref name="curtain_asbc_2018" />(~26 minutes in). Additional attenuation occurs very slowly for another 7-18 months. De Roos et al. (2018) reported a gradual drop from 4 Plato to 0.5 °Plato during the maturation phase. <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />. During this extended maturation phase, ''Brettanomyces'' continues to ferment the residual sugars leftover in the beer using intra- and extracellular alpha-glucosidase, and produces most of the final aromatic and flavor compounds in the form of esters, phenols, and fatty acids found in finished Belgian lambic and other spontaneously fermented beers (see [[Brettanomyces#Brettanomyces_Metabolism|''Brettanomyces'' metabolism]]). The most abundant species of ''Brettanomyces'' found in spontaneously fermented beer are strains of ''B. bruxellensis'' (''B. lambicus'' is often found, but has been reclassified as a strain of ''B. bruxellensis''). During the maturation phase, a [[pellicle]] is formed from the ''Brettanomyces'', as well as oxidative yeasts from the genera ''Pichia'', ''Candida'', ''Cryptococcus'', and ''Torulspsis'' <ref name="Van Oevelen et al., 1977" /><ref name="Roos_2018" /><ref name="Roos_2018_2" />. It is thought that the pellicle and the presence of these oxidative yeasts might reduce oxygen influx, and thus assist in inhibiting the growth of acetic acid bacteria <ref>[https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8c12/9985b9f1264179fe2e2f779bae1ff3e51a54.pdf Jacques De Keersmaecker. "The Mystery of Lambic Beer". Scientific American, Inc. 1996.]</ref>, however, this has not been proven in a scientific manner that we know of.

Other intermediate flavor and aroma compounds are creating during the fermentation process. For example, De Roos et al. (2018) reported the production of acetoin from week 3 to month 6 in lambic beers, and then a gradual decline after that. This corresponded with the growth of acetic acid bacteria (AAB), and the production of acetoin was attributed to the AAB oxidizing lactic acid. 2,3-Butanediol and 2,3-butanedione (diacetyl) were not found during the entire age of the lambics studied, so the full conversion of acetoin to these compounds never occurred. The decline of acetoin during the maturation phase was attributed to ''Brettanomyces'', which is known to occur when oxygen is limited. Malic acid was depleted as the lactic acid bacteria started to grow from month 6-9, and lactic acid increased (both D-lactic acid and L-lactic acid in nearly equal amounts at around 2.0 g/l), indicating malolactic fermentation occurred during this time. After the acidification phase and during the maturation phase where ''Brettanomyces'' and ''Pichia membranifaciens'' were dominant, small amounts of malic acid were produced, indicating that these yeasts are capable of producing small amounts of malic acid (less than 20 mg/l of malic acid was in the lambic beer at 24 months). Gluconic acid and citric acid, which were presumably introduced from the brewing process, were present at fairly stable levels during the entire fermentation process, with gluconic acid seeing a slight spike during the growth of acetic acid bacteria (~50 mg/l and ~220 mg/l in the final beers) <ref name="Roos_2018_2" />.

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** [https://www.facebook.com/groups/MilkTheFunk/permalink/2570617069633158/?comment_id=2570641549630710&reply_comment_id=2570664762961722&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R8%22%7D Follow up from Dr. Heit on MTF on "allergic-like" reactions to biogenic amines.]

The sources of microbes that influence spontaneous fermentation are somewhat debatable, especially when referencing [[Lambic]] producers in Belgium. Although the coolship step is regarded as the main contributor to the microbial inoculation for spontaneous beers, it is often claimed that ''Brettanomyces'' living in the barrels is at least partially responsible for the secondary fermentation of spontaneous beers. De Roos et al. (2018) used amplicon sequencing technology (which is better at detected so-called "[[Quality_Assurance#Viable_But_Nonculturable|viable but not culturable]]" cells) to samples the interior of barrels and foeders used in one lambic brewery that uses high-pressurized hot water and sulfur dioxide to clean them, and found surviving colonies of ''Brettanomyces anomalus'', ''B. bruxellensis'', ''B. custersianus'', ''Pediococcus'', and to a lesser extent ''Acetobacter'' and ''Lactobacillus''. The ''Acetobacter'' might be linked to older barrels that are more porous. ''Pichia'', ''Debaryomyces hansenii'' and ''Candida'' were also found in abundance in some barrels, but not others. They also found high levels of ''Cellulosimicrobium'' and ''Acinetobacter'', which have not been found to be important for lambic fermentation; the authors suspected that these were living in the wood rather than in the beer since they can metabolize cellulose. Although they are probably also not important to the fermentation of lambic, molds were found in the more porous barrels before cleaning, including ''Aspergillus'' and ''Penicillium''. No molds survived the sulfuring process and the diversity of microbes was far higher in barrels than it was for foeders, perhaps because of the higher level of oxygen exposure in barrels compared to foeders, although foeders had a much higher than expected amount of surviving ''Saccharomyces'' and ''Pichia'' <ref>[https://aem.asm.org/content/early/2018/10/15/AEM.02226-18 The interior surfaces of wooden barrels are an additional microbial inoculation source for lambic beer production. J. De Roos, D. Van der Veken, L. De Vuyst. 2018. DOI: 10.1128/AEM.02226-18.]</ref>.

It is worth noting that it appears to be possible for spontaneous fermentations to not harbor lactic acid bacteria or ''Brettanomyces''. For example, Andy Mitchell from New Belgium Brewing had a homebrewed spontaneous fermentation analyzed by New Belgium's lab after a year of age, and they only found ''Saccharomyces cerevisiae'' var ''diastaticus'' living in the beer and no lactic acid bacteria or ''Brettanomyces'' (this could have come from the barrel from previous inoculations; however, the barrel was stored for 1.5 years prior to this with water, potassium metabisulfite, and citric acid). Andy reported that the beer was also not sour and did not have any ''Brettanomyces'' character <ref>[https://www.facebook.com/groups/MilkTheFunk/permalink/1879283728766499/ Andy Mitchell. Milk The Funk thread regarding homebrewed batch of spontaneously fermented beer with no ''Brettanomyces'' or LAB. 11/10/2017.]</ref>.

==Alternative Applications of Spontaneous Fermentation==